10. Victor Osimhen – Napoli to Manchester United (€80m–€90m)
Osimhen’s relationship with Napoli has completely collapsed. He’s been benched for the last three league games after refusing a new contract. United need a proven No.9 to support Højlund and have made the Nigerian their #1 target. Napoli want €90m+, United are offering €80m + add-ons. Likelihood: 7/10 — United’s new ownership is desperate for a statement signing.
9. Marcus Rashford – Manchester United to PSG (Loan with €60m obligation)
Rashford has started only 4 of 14 league games this season and is openly unhappy. PSG see him as the perfect Salah replacement if the Egyptian leaves Liverpool. United want a loan with obligation to buy — PSG prefer straight loan. Likelihood: 8/10 — both clubs need this deal for different reasons.
8. Raphinha – Barcelona to Liverpool (€60m)
Barcelona’s financial crisis is back. Raphinha has 15 G/A this season but isn’t undroppable. Liverpool want a long-term Salah successor and have cash from the Saudi bid rejection. Barcelona need to balance books before June 30. Likelihood: 7/10 — depends on Barcelona’s FFP situation in December.
7. Florian Wirtz – Bayer Leverkusen to Real Madrid (€120m)
The German wonderkid is the most coveted player in Europe. 18 G/A already this season. Leverkusen rejected €100m from Bayern in summer — Madrid are now leading the race with €120m + add-ons. Xabi Alonso factor huge. Likelihood: 8.5/10 — only money or Wirtz saying “no” stops this.
6. Bruno Guimarães – Newcastle to Manchester City (€100m release clause)
Guimarães has a €100m release clause active in January. City need a Rodri backup/long-term successor. Newcastle’s FFP issues make them open to offers. City have the money and the need. Likelihood: 9/10 — the most “when”, not “if” deal of the window.
5. Joshua Kimmich – Bayern Munich to Barcelona (Free in summer, €50m in January)
Kimmich’s contract runs out in June 2026. Bayern want €50m now or lose him for nothing. Barcelona have made him their #1 midfield target. Bayern are desperate to avoid a free exit. Likelihood: 8/10 — only ego stops this.
4. Son Heung-min – Tottenham to Al-Ittihad (€70m)
Son has 18 months left on his deal. Al-Ittihad offered €70m in summer — now back with an improved bid. Tottenham want to keep him but the money is life-changing. Likelihood: 6/10 — depends if Spurs get a replacement.
3. Alphonso Davies – Bayern Munich to Real Madrid (Free in summer, €50m in January)
Davies to Madrid is done for summer — but Bayern want €50m now to avoid losing him for nothing. Madrid prefer to wait, but injury to Mendy might force their hand. Likelihood: 7/10 — January or summer, he’s gone.
2. Trent Alexander-Arnold – Liverpool to Real Madrid (Free in summer, €40m in January)
The big one. Trent has 8 months left on his contract. Liverpool offered £300k/week — he wants Madrid. Real prefer free transfer but will pay €40m to get him in January. Likelihood: 9.5/10 — only a last-minute Liverpool U-turn stops this.
1. Mohamed Salah – Liverpool to Al-Ittihad (€200m package)
The mother of all rumors. Salah has 18 months left. Al-Ittihad’s €200m package (salary + fee) is on the table. Liverpool say “not for sale” — but at 33, this might be his last big move. Likelihood: 8/10 — money talks, and this is life-changing money.
Conclusion
January 2026 could be the most explosive winter window ever. Three of the Premier League’s biggest stars (Salah, Trent, Rashford) could all leave. Saudi clubs are back with bigger checkbooks. And the domino effect could trigger 20+ more deals.
Which rumor do you believe most? Which one do you pray doesn’t happen? Drop your take in the comments — I reply to every one!
Disclaimer: Rumors based on credible sources as of November 22, 2025. See our Privacy Policy for details.
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